stock rememberance page

watch list for tuesday, jan 19

2009-01-19T22:21:00.004-06:00

Futures are down quite a bit this evening - here's a few stocks to watch for shorts that are up more than 50% in the past 2 weeks.

ANSV UEC MMAB SSLR MPG GTCB HYBR FIG(hopefully IB found borrows) PGOG CIDM MEG TARG NFLD NAVI VRNM

VRNM one i know from past is junker

Rangeability

2009-01-19T14:41:00.009-06:00

As promised, I am posting the combination of Run Forest Run + Fall Forest Fall scans. I have named this the "Rangeability" scan because that is what I think of it as. It shows how many times a stock has run up OR down in the last 100 days! For those of you looking for volatility, you have found it. This also has the line "and D1020 > 9" that removes stocks that have run 10% less than 10 times in the past 100 days.

For those of you that don't know, this scan can be run using the stockfetcher website.


/*Rangeability*/

close is between 1 and 15
average volume(90) above 50000

set{volcnt, count(volume above 50000, 100) }
set{volzero, count(volume equal 0, 100) }

set{x2, open - low}
set{Short_Profit, x2/open }
set{x1, high - open}
set{Long_Profit, x1/open }

set{C1A, count(Long_Profit > .04 , 100)}
set{C2A, count(Long_Profit > .09, 100)}
set{C1B, count(Short_Profit > .04 , 100)}
set{C2B, count(Short_Profit > .09, 100)}
set{C0010A, C1A + C1B}
set{C0010B, C2A + C2B}
set{C0010, C0010A - C0010B}

set{D1A, count(Long_Profit > .09 , 100)}
set{D2A, count(Long_Profit > .19, 100)}
set{D1B, count(Short_Profit > .09 , 100)}
set{D2B, count(Short_Profit > .19, 100)}
set{D1020A, D1A + D1B}
set{D1020B, D2A + D2B}
set{D1020, D1020A - D1020B}

set{E1A, count(Long_Profit > .19 , 100)}
set{E2A, count(Long_Profit > .29, 100)}
set{E1B, count(Short_Profit > .19 , 100)}
set{E2B, count(Short_Profit > .29, 100)}
set{E2030A, E1A + E1B}
set{E2030B,  E2A + E2B}
set{E2030, E2030A - E2030B}

set{F1A, count(Long_Profit > .29 , 100)}
set{F2A, count(Long_Profit > .39, 100)}
set{F1B, count(Short_Profit > .29 , 100)}
set{F2B, count(Short_Profit > .39, 100)}
set{F3040A, F1A + F1B}
set{F3040B, F2A + F2B}
set{F3040, F3040A - F3040B}

set{G1A, count(Long_Profit > .39 , 100)}
set{G2A, count(Long_Profit > .49, 100)}
set{G1B, count(Short_Profit > .39 , 100)}
set{G2B, count(Short_Profit > .49, 100)}
set{G4050A, G1A + G1B}
set{G4050B, G2A + G2B}
set{G4050, G4050A - G4050B}

set{H1A, count(Long_Profit > .49 , 100)}
set{H2A, count(Long_Profit > .99, 100)}
set{H1B, count(Short_Profit > .49 , 100)}
set{H2B, count(Short_Profit > .99, 100)}
set{H50100A, H1A + H1B}
set{H50100B, H2A + H2B}
set{H50100, H50100A - H50100B}

set{I1A, count(Short_Profit > .99 , 100)}
set{I1B, count(Long_Profit > .99 , 100)}
set{I100, I1A + I1B}
and D1020 > 9
and add column Short_Profit {ProfitPct}

and add column C0010 {4_9}
and add column D1020 {10_19}
and add column E2030 {20_29}
and add column F3040 {30_39}
and add column G4050 {40_49}
and add column H50100 {50_99}
and add column I100 {100}

and add column volcnt
and add column volzero
add column average day range(30)
sort column 7 descending

If you don't know how this is supposed to work it may help to read my Fall Forest Fall post as well as 13th_floor's i'm gonna try post on GOTS blog.

An example of a strategy that could be used with this scan:
1. Take the stocks that have 10% or more runs more than 60 of the last 100 days with volume (thats like 25-30 stocks).
2. Wait for the stock to be 2% green or 2% red.
3. Buy if 2% green, sell if 2% red.
4. Based on recent history, 60% of the time you should get an additional 8% gain. Sometimes it won't work of course, but if you keep your stops at 3% or so you should have a very good risk/reward ratio.

Feel free to ask any questions or leave comments and I will try to get back to you

Fall Forest Fall in a down market

2009-01-13T01:25:00.007-06:00

Yes it was a down market yesterday - an excellent time to short the list of Fall Forest Fall stocks!
The watchlist I posted on Sunday:
That's an average loss of 12%, with FIG falling an amazing 30.67%

Pre Hit Trade Example

2009-01-13T00:35:00.008-06:00

When I first started trading I had a hard time correlating what I was reading and learning with what I was seeing on charts. This is an attempt to show you what I saw as it was happening. The chart setup I use the most is 3 minute bars, so that is what I have illustrated this trade with.

Muddy preaches about the pre hits (stocks that are up in premarket trading)... CCTYQ was a double pre hit (pre hit 2 days in a row). I don't know whether that makes it better or not but it worked this time. So before market open in the morning, I was watching it, waiting to buy on a sign of strength. I jumped in at .36 as soon as I saw activity. Look at the VOLUME on the gap up!

It spiked up more, then started to go down, but never went RED. I was ready to sell if it went red, but it didn't, and continued to a high of 0.47

It went into sideways action for the next while, until volume started picking up again, with decreasing price - as you can see below. This is when I sold at 0.43 for a gain of 19%. I sold because of DECREASING price on INCREASING volume. Additionally, it broke the previous low of 0.435 that it had made after its high of 0.47

It continued down to a low of 0.33 - after I was long gone.

I hope this helps some of you understand what to look for if you watch charts. The charting software I'm using is TD Ameritrade's StrategyDesk.
Please leave any questions or comments, as well as suggestions about things you think would aid in understanding.

Fall Forest Fall

2009-01-11T11:18:00.000-06:00

Don't worry treehuggers, I'm not advocating deforestation. Fall Forest Fall is yet another play on the Run Forest Run scan. I was looking at the scan trying to figure out how it worked, and I'm happy to say I did. I realized though, the RFR scan only finds the stocks that have run UP in recent history. This scan searches for the ones that have run DOWN the most times. I also added a line to eliminate stocks that have run 10-19% less than 10 times.

Why is this important? I don't just want stats, I want ALL THE STATS I CAN GET. Everything I know is an extra edge against all the other players in the market. The RFR scan is brilliant, but it only tells half the story. Fall Forest Fall fills that gap. If you are a short seller, this is an essential for your toolbox.


/*Fall, Forest, Fall*/

close is between 1 and 15
average volume(90) above 50000

set{volcnt, count(volume above 50000, 100) }
set{volzero, count(volume equal 0, 100) }

set{x1, open - low} 
set{Short_Profit, x1/open } 

set{C1A, count(Short_Profit > .04 , 100)} 
set{C2A, count(Short_Profit > .09, 100)} 
set{C0010, C1A - C2A} 

set{D1A, count(Short_Profit > .09 , 100)} 
set{D2A, count(Short_Profit > .19, 100)} 
set{D1020, D1A - D2A} 

set{E1A, count(Short_Profit > .19 , 100)} 
set{E2A, count(Short_Profit > .29, 100)} 
set{E2030, E1A - E2A} 

set{F1A, count(Short_Profit > .29 , 100)} 
set{F2A, count(Short_Profit > .39, 100)} 
set{F3040, F1A - F2A} 

set{G1A, count(Short_Profit > .39 , 100)} 
set{G2A, count(Short_Profit > .49, 100)} 
set{G4050, G1A - G2A} 

set{H1A, count(Short_Profit > .49 , 100)} 
set{H2A, count(Short_Profit > .99, 100)} 
set{H50100, H1A - H2A} 

set{I100, count(Short_Profit > .99 , 100)} 

and D1020 > 9
and add column Short_Profit {ProfitPct} 

and add column C0010 {4_9} 
and add column D1020 {10_19} 
and add column E2030 {20_29} 
and add column F3040 {30_39} 
and add column G4050 {40_49} 
and add column H50100 {50_99} 
and add column I100 {100} 

and add column volcnt
and add column volzero
add column average day range(30)
sort column 7 descending

Top 20 Fall Forest Fall stocks with volume over 100k, by ADR30:
GGP, FACT, MPG, GVHR, SRZ, NFP, FED, CPY, CHRS, NG, FIG, GFG, BEE, HSNI, MNI, EVC, FCG, ICOG, RAMS, LEA
of note, FMD and PMI have both run down 10-19% a whopping 39 times in the past 100 days! In the case of PMI, 49% of the time you would have got a 10% or more gain if you just shorted on red!

Later this week I'll post the combo RFR+FFF scan, that searches for total number of runs up OR down. Feel free to leave any questions or comments and I'll get back to you.

HOT LIST scan!

2009-01-09T18:47:00.001-06:00

The scanning software I use is StockFetcher. It is web based and can be found at stockfetcher.com.
I thought I would share a scan I use at the beginning of every week to make what I call the "hot list" of stocks whose Average Day Range (10) is greater than Average Day Range (30). In addition I have combined this with Avery Horton's "Run Forest Run" scan that shows how many times a stock has run a given percentage in recent history. This gives me a really good idea of what stocks are in play and getting attention - not from the news, but from buyers/sellers!

I want to find the stocks that are not just volatile, but getting more volatile, and this scan really can pick them up. This is also a good scan to use if you can't watch as many stocks as traders like Muddy, because it filters it down a lot more than the RFR or Deadly Combo scans.


show stocks where average day range(30) is greater than 15
and average day range(30) is less than average day range(10)
and close is between 1 and 15
and average volume(90) is above 100000

set{volcnt, count(volume above 50000, 100) }
set{volzero, count(volume equal 0, 100) }

set{x1, high - open}
set{Long_Profit, x1/open }

set{C1A, count(Long_Profit > .04 , 100)}
set{C2A, count(Long_Profit > .09, 100)}
set{C0010, C1A - C2A}

set{D1A, count(Long_Profit > .09 , 100)}
set{D2A, count(Long_Profit > .19, 100)}
set{D1020, D1A - D2A}

set{E1A, count(Long_Profit > .19 , 100)}
set{E2A, count(Long_Profit > .29, 100)}
set{E2030, E1A - E2A}

set{F1A, count(Long_Profit > .29 , 100)}
set{F2A, count(Long_Profit > .39, 100)}
set{F3040, F1A - F2A}

set{G1A, count(Long_Profit > .39 , 100)}
set{G2A, count(Long_Profit > .49, 100)}
set{G4050, G1A - G2A}

set{H1A, count(Long_Profit > .49 , 100)}
set{H2A, count(Long_Profit > .99, 100)}
set{H50100, H1A - H2A}

set{I100, count(Long_Profit > .99 , 100)}

add column Long_Profit {ProfitPct}

and add column C0010 {4_9}
and add column D1020 {10_19}
and add column E2030 {20_29}
and add column F3040 {30_39}
and add column G4050 {40_49}
and add column H50100 {50_99}
and add column I100 {100}

and add column volcnt
and add column volzero
add column average day range(10)
add column average day range(30)
sort column 7 descending

the Hot List for the week of 1/12/09 (sorted in order of most runs 10-19%, Horton style)
MGAFF, NFLD, PNPFF, LNET, MEA, MNI, FIG, MEG, ABD, ALD, EMKR, HTM, CVGI, FTK, VRNM, UIS, CWST, LAVA, PRSC, MIC, DNN, KFN, AHD, XTXI

feel free to leave any questions or comments you have in the comments section and I will get back to you

New Blog

2009-01-09T18:18:00.000-06:00

I've been trading full time since August of 2008. Everything I use now is a derivation of Muddy's method. Nothing can express how grateful I am for his effort to share the wealth of knowledge that he has about how to make money trading stocks.
I trade the momentum of stocks. I don't care what their P/E ratio is, what the CEO said that day, or what analyst recommended it. I care about what the price is doing.
Most of my trades come from the Scottrade Market Movers list, and I keep a special eye out for the ones that have shown up a lot in the StockFetcher scans I run every night.

Shamefully, I have to admit his blog is not just for the edification of the public! I hope to keep a record of some ideal trades on here and also try to educate about what makes me pull the trigger to buy or sell. I also am going to share some of the SF scans I have made.

chas